The coordination of the work packages in Module B aims for the strengthening of the links among the Module B partners as well as between Module B and the other modules. For that purpose, annual Module B workshops will take place to exchange information about the status of the work packages. The coordinator will report on Module B topics and results at the other modules' workshops and observe their research progress that is relevant for Module B. The coordinator assesses the findings of the Module B work packages whether they are suitable for implementation into the MiKlip prediction system in accordance with the MiKlip steering committee.

Another aim of B-Coordination is the improvement of the process understanding of extreme events. For this purpose the simulations performed with the MiKlip prediction system are analysed for periods of extreme events such as heat waves. It should be clarified which large-scale atmospheric processes are necessary to enable such extreme events. Another focus is on investigating the predictability of these events. This includes the consideration of the influence of decadal variability, i.e. it is necessary to clarify whether processes of decadal variability also have an impact on extreme events and whether there is an accumulation of extreme events in particular decades.

Progress so far

For the analysis of processes that lead to extreme events, the focus was on the influence of the North Atlantic on Europe. In winter, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the main driver for European weather patterns. It has a stronger impact on minimum than on maximum temperatures with the largest effect over Northern Europe. Regarding precipitation, the strongest impact can be found over the Iberian Peninsula and Norway, whereas for snow fall and snow cover over Southern Scandinavia, the Baltic States and Northern Germany. In contrast, the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) index shows only poor correlation with temperature and precipitation extremes.  Additional analysis show that the main results are not influenced by the model resolution.

In addition, the impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) on Europe was analysed. Both maximum and minimum temperatures show for summer and winter quite consistent patterns for the warm and the cold phase of the AMV. During the warm phases of the AMV, a cooling is found over Northern and a warming over Southern Europe. During the AMV cold phases, a warming is found over Eastern and a cooling over Western Europe. These patterns are more pronounced in winter.