Module E is evaluating hindcasts from the MiKlip decadal prediction system focusing the main pillars: i) generation of observational data sets and their use for an improved validation of hindcasts, ii) hindcast verification, i.e. the development and implementation of procedures for a quantitative estimation of forecast quality, and iii) process-oriented validation to enhance the understanding and thus the credibility of the prediction system and its products.
Working towards an operational system in MiKlip II, an additional focus comes up: the transfer of predictions from the MiKlip system into probabilistic forecast products for users. This implies a) bias correction of predictions taking a model drift and a climate trend into account, b) calibration of probabilistic forecasts to increase reliability, and c) the construction of forecasts for user-relevant quantities and events, such as heat-waves, droughts, storm surges or other kinds of large-scale climate anomalies.
These pillars define five Module E objectives paving the way towards a useroriented operational system:
1. Bias and Drift correction, Calibration
2. User-oriented post-processing
3. Process-oriented validation
4. Generation of data sets
5. Hindcast verification
Höschel, I. | Illing, S., Grieger, J., Ulbrich, U., Cubasch, U.
Feldmann, H. | Pinto, J.G., Laube, N., Uhlig, M., Moemken, J., Pasternack, A., Früh, B., Pohlmann, H., Kottmeier, C.
Titike K. Bahaga | Andreas H. Fink, Peter Knippertz
Lang, B.
Roberto Suárez-Moreno | Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, Jesús A. Barroso, and Andreas H. Fink
Sharon E. Nicholson | Andreas H. Fink, | Chris Funk
Alexander Pasternack | Jonas Bhend, Mark A. Liniger, Henning W. Rust, Wolfgang A. Müller, Uwe Ulbrich
Nicholson, S. E., | C. Funk, and A. H. Fink
Freie Universität Berlin, Institute for Meteorology
Prof. Dr. Uwe Ulbrich
Freie Universität Berlin, Institute for Meteorology
Dr. Jens Grieger